The French representatives are playing extra time. On Monday, they resumed consideration of a revised draft budget, the second part of a “package” of measures to buy electricity. On the menu, among other things: a discount on the price of fuel and the nationalization of EDF. Objective: to complete this first reading as quickly as possible, which should be resolved on Friday, to pass the baton to the Senate and quickly close this first extraordinary session. The debates will actually last longer than expected in view of the new sanctions weighing on the macronists.

Because on June 19, the French legislative elections gave Emmanuel Macron a parliamentary headache: he did not obtain the absolute majority set at 289 out of 577 seats. He faced the left coalition (Noobs) with 131 deputies. (RN) with 89 seats and the traditional right (LR) with 61 elected, the relative majority (together!) of the presidential alliance is not guaranteed to pass its laws with its 245 representatives.

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During the first assessment, political scientist Olivier Costa, research director at Cevipof de Sciences Po, notes that the government has failed to secure a stable majority with LR or the socialist opposition. “So he had to choose to do without a majority. You don’t need 289 members to rule the country, you don’t need 289 people plotting against you. If the opposition is divided and there are people who don’t vote, you can form a government with 245 members.

First text, first disappointment: Faced with an upsurge in Covid cases, the government had to extend certain measures, such as the introduction of health passes at the borders. Nupes, RN and a few LRs joined forces to amend this article of the “Health Care Bill” in first reading. However, the Senate was able to reintroduce it to a greater extent.

Negotiations outside the Hemicycle

The following text, the first of a series of measures to support purchasing power in the face of inflation, adopted on Friday, contained a provision more encouraging for Macroni. The presidential camp effectively succeeded in convincing the National Rally and the Republicans to vote with it on these measures. According to Oliver Costa, “in search of credibility, the representatives of the RN are very cautious and do not prevent them from governing, which is a good surprise at the start of the Prime Minister’s mandate. After all, “Republicans negotiate on a case-by-case basis, trading support for a limited number of amendments from their plan. In purchasing power, they obtain for example the amortization of overtime and the redemption of RTT. We are in the heritage of Sarkozy with the slogan “Work more to earn more”, which wins symbolic victories that make this mandate start from the right due to the formal opposition of the nodes.

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On the other hand, the New People’s Environmental and Social Union opposed all the articles published by the government, their orientation being anti-liberal and anti-environmental. “The rebellious representatives are guerrillas as expected, analyzes Oliver Costa. Twenty years have passed since this behavior was theorized by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. By contradicting everything in an attempt to create a revolutionary moment, they do not think of winning power through the ballot box, but in the streets. It’s complicated for those who are not in this line. PS and environmentalists The left is trying to use the confidence created by the Nupes to regain a form of credibility, but we are torn by the desire to appear reasonable in order to hand over power. They leave the role of systematic government persecutor to the rebels, as it is paid according to credibility. Even among the Insoumis there are those like Clémentine Autain who call for peace. Some texts aimed at influencing U. of formal prohibition to go anywhere for certain representatives who want Thi is unsatisfactory.

Because today “the real negotiations take place outside the half-cycle, the government writes the law, but, in the entourage of the ministers, discussions take place with the ambassadors of the parties”, explains Oliver Costa. “In addition, the government is studying radical opposition amendments very carefully, sometimes some from the left, but more formally with LR.”

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Such are the years to come in an overheated French political landscape. According to Oliver Costa, “Emmanuel Macron was smart to start with purchasing power, because no one can deny his intentions. It will be more complicated with real reforms such as pensions. The government really tries to find a method in easy texts before tackling the hard at the start of the school year, explains the researcher: “The first is that they can find a routine by negotiating on a case-by-case basis. case basis. With right, or without great reform, they must reign in sight. All educational policies can be governed by decrees, both in the reserved domain of the President and in the regulatory domain of the government, such as the International. All this awaits a favorable moment for a possible dissolution and new elections. In two years, public opinion may have turned against the rebels, believing that the embargo was not good for the country.

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